The full forward-test ledger

Most trading AIs hide their losses. We publish ours.

Every Parlay strategy, scored against the market in public. Each call is paper-traded and timestamped before it resolves, then graded against the price. Winners and losers both stay on the board, with their post-mortem. Nothing is quietly removed.

See a strategy a creator is pushing on X or TikTok? Ask us to test it. We forward-test it here in the open and publish how it really holds up, win or loss.

§ 01

How the forward test works

01

Logged before resolution

Every call is paper-traded and timestamped before the market settles, so nothing can be added, edited, or deleted after the fact.

02

Graded against the market

On settlement each call is scored against the price the crowd had. Beating the market on Brier, not win rate, is the bar that matters.

03

Unproven until it earns it

A strategy stays labeled unproven until it clears n=50 graded calls and beats the market. The ones that lose get killed, in public.

§ 02

Every strategy, scored

"Graded" is the number of calls scored against the market. W / L counts the closed positions, plus anything still open. Read the shape, not the headline: a low win rate with positive PnL is the tail signature, many small losses paid back by a few big wins.

StrategyStatusGradedW / LPnL · after costsVerdict
Loading the live ledger…
BEATS THE MARKET proven over the sample so far UNPROVEN not enough graded calls yet STRUCTURAL / JUST STARTED PnL only, or no data yet KILLED lost to the market, retired in public

Live, straight from the forward-test ledger. Paper-traded, small samples, labeled as such. Until a strategy's calibration holds and it beats the market on Brier, it stays labeled unproven.

§ 03

Open right now

Live paper positions, every one timestamped before it resolves. This is the board updating as the strategies fire.