Parlay gives you a Buy, Sell, or Skip with a fair price, a confidence level, and the sources behind it. To use that well you need a few ideas. None of them are complicated. All of them are things a tip service hopes you never learn.
A verdict is an estimate of fair price plus a direction and a confidence — not a promise. "Buy YES at 60¢, fair ~67¢, confidence medium" means we think the market is a little cheap, and we're telling you how sure we are. You decide.
When we say 70%, does it actually happen about 70% of the time? That's calibration. The reliability diagram on the home page plots our stated probability against what really happened. A perfectly honest forecaster sits on the diagonal.
The Brier score grades a probability against the real outcome — lower is better. We publish ours next to the market's, so you can see whether our number actually beat the price. When it doesn't, we say so.
The market price is usually right. Most of the time the honest answer is "no edge." The whole job is finding the few spots where the crowd is mispriced — and not pretending the other times count.
The most valuable call is often "don't trade this." No edge is a real answer, not a dodge. A tool that only ever says Buy is selling you action. Skips are how you avoid paying the spread for nothing.
How much to stake follows from edge and confidence, not how excited you feel. Bigger edge and higher confidence mean a bigger size; thin edge means small or skip. Conviction without an edge is just gambling with extra steps.